See here.
Statistically it's a tie. But at least nominally Zogby's new phone poll has McCain ahead of Obama 42%-41%. And that's the second poll today to show McCain with, again, a nominal lead.
See here also ("SUSA FL Poll: McCain By 6").
Here is why Obama is losing and likely will lose Florida: McCain leads among women 51-44 and voters 65+ (30% of the electorate) 54-41. Obama has one chance to win in Florida, pick Hillary Clinton as his VP. If he does not, then there is no point to wasting resources in Florida.
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