Monday, April 28, 2008

The latest on 'electability': 'Clinton Regains Independents, Young Voters Against McCain'

Post here.

Obama supporters understandably dispute any suggestion that Reverend Wright has done any damage to Obama for November, and rebel at the thought that anything would derail his march to the nomination. By his ability to raise loads of money and win numerous contests due to Hillary's mismanaged and ill-defined effort, it is a miscarriage of justice to them that "party bosses" and super delegates would have reservations about Obama's ability to beat McCain in a head-to-head race and hesitate to give him their endorsement this late in the campaign.

But what if Obama has peaked too early, and Hillary has reason to hang around now on the one issue he claims as his own: electability?

Hillary Rodham Clinton now leads John McCain by 9 points in a head-to-head presidential matchup, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable than Democratic rival Barack Obama.

On a day when Reverend Wright unfortunately made himself the story again, pay close attention to where Hillary has made her gains recently.

Helped by independents, young people and seniors, Clinton gained ground this month in a hypothetical match with Sen. McCain,☼ the GOP nominee-in-waiting. She now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.

Keep in mind that this poll had more Democrats in its sample than independents.

When pitted against McCain, Clinton now wins among independents, 50 percent to 34 percent, when just a few weeks ago she ran about even with him with this crucial group of voters. Clinton also now does better among independents than Obama does in a matchup with McCain.

Clinton has a newfound edge among seniors, too, 51 percent to 39 percent; McCain had previously had the advantage. And, Clinton has improved her margin over McCain among people under age 30; two-thirds of them now side with her. McCain leads Obama among seniors, while Obama leads McCain among those under 30 but by a smaller margin than Clinton does.

And she clawed her way to these leads over the last several weeks by going right at McCain on the issues, and this is the result, even before she hones in on the fact that McCain wants to privatize Social Security and wants the war to keep going as long as he and his disaster capitalist buddies want.

Also note that Obama's recent 10-point lead in Gallup's tracking poll from last week is now totally gone, and this was before Wright's speech today.

Update: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that DailyKos and AmericaBlog have managed to ignore this poll today.

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