'Electability: Why Hillary Is More Likely to Beat McCain'

Talk Left post here.

There's no question that superdelegates will consider electability as a factor in deciding whether to vote for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Based on this analysis by long-time Democratic party activist William Arnone, which I return to again and again for the numbers, here's what I think they need to look at:

-- Who can best hold on to the 20 states the Dems won in 2004? Which candidate is more likely to put these states at risk in a battle with John McCain?

-- Which candidate has the better chance of winning states that voted Republican in 2004 but are now seen as vulnerable for McCain?

-- Which candidate has a better chance of getting the votes of four key constituencies that could carry the election for McCain?

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The most important factor for superdelegates in my mind right now, given how close the candidates are in vote totals is which candidate has the best chance of winning in November.

Using the factors laid out by Mr. Arnone, that candidate is Hillary Clinton.

I'll add that for me, it may be as simple as which candidate has a better chance of bringing home Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania in November. I think that candidate is Hillary Clinton. . . .