I find the level-headed thinking over at The Left Coaster more akin to my own. Its originator, Steve Soto, was a contributor to Daily Kos before starting up his blog in February of 2003. (I used to read Kos daily, but now I find it so extreme that I no longer bother to go there.) (I'm almost to the point of cutting out AmericaBlog also. John has become so vituperative and vulgar in his Obamamania that I now feel embarrassed for him when I read his stuff.) (But I still like Chris in Paris.)
The Stephanie Miller Show likewise is becoming hard to listen to (I've been turning it off.) It's Obama all the time. They should just call it The Obama Show these days. (And Stephanie is not the worst offender--Chris is.)
Anyway, from Turkana at The Left Coaster. (I'm reproducing the entire post since this is important.)
The most basic fact that everyone needs get through their heads is that the superdelegates are going to decide the Democratic nomination. Neither Hillary Clinton nor Barack Obama will win enough pledged delegates to clinch it. The key, then, for both candidates, will be the ability to make the case that they best represent the will of the Democratic voters. Obama supporters who now obsessively point to the current pledged delegate count, insisting that Clinton cannot catch him, miss the point entirely. Obama is not going to win on pledged delegates.
Many Obama supporters have fallen back on the argument that the winner of the pledged delegate count should win the support of the superdelegates. This is but a partisan attempt to game the rationale in their favor. There are literally no objective grounds for claiming that the pledged delegate count is what matters most. Given the complicated and arbitrary system for allocating delegates, with arbitrary thresholds within precincts, and given that caucuses are wholly undemocratic, the pledged delegate count can in no way be said to represent the popular will. It is but an artificial system, and it now favors Barack Obama; but anyone who relies on that arbitrary system as determinant of the rightful nominee has to accept that the same arbitrary system also allows for the superdelegates to override it.
If one really wants to get to the core of what should matter- the will of the people- one has to return to the popular vote. But even that is a mess. As Big Tent Democrat points out:
The inclusion of Michigan is problematic as Obama was not on the ballot. Florida is problematic because campaigning was not allowed. Not including Washington state is problematic because there is no reason not to include it. 3 caucus states have not released their vote counts. Some of these problems can be resolved. Michigan and Florida should have a revote. Those caucus states can release their vote counts. The Washington state primary results can be included.So, it again comes down to which candidate can make the strongest argument about deserving the nomination. Big Tent looked at the Real Clear Politics popular vote tally, and included Florida and Michigan, because something will now have to be done to resolve the issue of their delegates having been excluded. I have already argued that the only fair answer is to hold new primaries. But I want to look at the popular vote counts without those two states:
Obama 12,946,615
Clinton 12,363,897Her margins of victory, last night, cut his popular vote lead by nearly a third. If they roughly split the remaining smaller states, and she wins big in demographically favorable Pennsylvania, that lead will probably be roughly halved. New primaries in Florida and Michigan will then easily be able to put her over the top. As Big Tent points out, the inclusion of the current Florida and Michigan counts, alone, already put her over the top. However flawed those counts are, when you include Pennsylvania, it is clear that resolving Florida and Michigan, with new votes, can make the difference.
Beyond all that, however, there is even another important factor for the superdelegates to consider. Many had been moving to Obama because he had been racking up huge wins in a long succession of elections. She has now stopped that cold. She has also still beaten him in every contested large state. Additionally, as I pointed out last night, she won big, in both Ohio and Texas, among those who decided in the final three days. She had also already erased his lead in national tracking polls, and she has today taken a five point lead in the latest from Rasmussen. And that doesn't even take into account any bump she gets from last night. In other words, she has huge momentum. If that carries her to further victories, including in the remaining large states, she will have a clear lead in the popular vote, and the wind in her sails. Obama needs to stop her momentum.
The bottom line, then, is this: we have a deeply flawed system. I've been arguing that from day one. The best we can hope for is a nominee that best reflects the will of the people. The popular vote will not determine the winner. Neither will the pledged delegates. The superdelegates will. It will be up to them to decide which candidate best reflects the will of the people, and which candidate will best lead the party into the general election. Obama's current pledged delegate lead is irrelevant to those measures. He needs to prove that last night was an anomaly. He needs to do better in large states. The only measure that now matters is which candidate can make the best argument about best representing the Democratic Party. That argument is now wide open, and anyone's to win.
2 comments:
Don’t believe one optimistic word from any public figure about the economy or humanity in general. They are all part of the problem. Its like a game of Monopoly. In America, the richest 1% now hold 1/2 OF ALL UNITED STATES WEALTH. Unlike ‘lesser’ estimates, this includes all stocks, bonds, cash, and material assets held by America’s richest 1%. Even that filthy pig Oprah acknowledged that it was at about 50% in 2006. Naturally, she put her own ‘humanitarian’ spin on it. Calling attention to her own ‘good will’. WHAT A DISGUSTING HYPOCRITE SLOB. THE RICHEST 1% HAVE LITERALLY MADE WORLD PROSPERITY ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE. Don’t fall for any of their ‘humanitarian’ CRAP. ITS A SHAM. THESE PEOPLE ARE CAUSING THE SAME PROBLEMS THEY PRETEND TO CARE ABOUT. Ask any professor of economics. Money does not grow on trees. The government can’t just print up more on a whim. At any given time, there is a relative limit to the wealth within ANY economy of ANY size. So when too much wealth accumulates at the top, the middle class slip further into debt and the lower class further into poverty. A similar rule applies worldwide. The world’s richest 1% now own over 40% of ALL WORLD WEALTH. This is EVEN AFTER you account for all of this ‘good will’ ‘humanitarian’ BS from celebrities and executives. ITS A SHAM. As they get richer and richer, less wealth is left circulating beneath them. This is the single greatest underlying cause for the current US recession. The middle class can no longer afford to sustain their share of the economy. Their wealth has been gradually transfered to the richest 1%. One way or another, we suffer because of their incredible greed. We are talking about TRILLIONS of dollars. Transfered FROM US TO THEM. Over a period of about 27 years. Thats Reaganomics for you. The wealth does not ‘trickle down’ as we were told it would. It just accumulates at the top. Shrinking the middle class and expanding the lower class. Causing a domino effect of socio-economic problems. But the rich will never stop. They will never settle for a reasonable share of ANYTHING. They will do whatever it takes to get even richer. Leaving even less of the pie for the other 99% of us to share. At the same time, they throw back a few tax deductable crumbs and call themselves ‘humanitarians’. Cashing in on the PR and getting even richer the following year. IT CAN’T WORK THIS WAY. Their bogus efforts to make the world a better place can not possibly succeed. Any 'humanitarian' progress made in one area will be lost in another. EVERY SINGLE TIME. IT ABSOLUTELY CAN NOT WORK THIS WAY. This is going to end just like a game of Monopoly. The current US recession will drag on for years and lead into the worst US depression of all time. The richest 1% will live like royalty while the rest of us fight over jobs, food, and gasoline. Crime, poverty, and suicide will skyrocket. So don’t fall for all of this PR CRAP from Hollywood, Pro Sports, and Wall Street PIGS. ITS A SHAM. Remember: They are filthy rich EVEN AFTER their tax deductable contributions. Greedy pigs. Now, we are headed for the worst economic and cultural crisis of all time. SEND A “THANK YOU” NOTE TO YOUR FAVORITE MILLIONAIRE. ITS THEIR FAULT. I’m not discounting other factors like China, sub-prime, or gas prices. But all of those factors combined still pale in comparison to that HUGE transfer of wealth to the rich. Anyway, those other factors are all related and further aggrivated because of GREED. If it weren’t for the OBSCENE distribution of wealth within our country, there never would have been such a market for sub-prime to begin with. Which by the way, was another trick whipped up by greedy bankers and executives. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. The credit industry has been ENDORSED by people like Oprah, Ellen, Dr Phil, and many other celebrities. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. Now, there are commercial ties between nearly every industry and every public figure. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. So don’t fall for their ‘good will’ BS. ITS A LIE. If you fall for it, then you’re a fool. If you see any real difference between the moral character of a celebrity, politician, attorney, or executive, then you’re a fool. WAKE UP PEOPLE. ITS ALL ABOUT THE MONEY. The 1% club will always say or do whatever it takes to get as rich as possible. Without the slightest regard for anything or anyone but themselves. Reaganomics. Their idea. Loans from China. Their idea. NAFTA. Their idea. Outsourcing. Their idea. Sub-prime. Their idea. The commercial lobbyist. Their idea. The multi-million dollar lawsuit. Their idea. $200 cell phone bills. Their idea. $200 basketball shoes. Their idea. $30 late fees. Their idea. $30 NSF fees. Their idea. $20 DVDs. Their idea. Subliminal advertising. Their idea. Brainwash plots on TV. Their idea. Prozac, Zanex, Vioxx, and Celebrex. Their idea. The MASSIVE campaign to turn every American into a brainwashed, credit card, pharmaceutical, love-sick, couch potatoe, celebrity junkie. Their idea. All of the above shrink the middle class, concentrate the world’s wealth and resources, and wreak havok on society. All of which have been CREATED AND ENDORSED by celebrities, athletes, executives, entrepreneurs, attorneys, and politicians. IT MAKES THEM RICHER. So don’t fall for any of their ‘good will’ ‘humanitarian’ BS. ITS A SHAM. NOTHING BUT TAX DEDUCTABLE PR CRAP. Bottom line: The richest 1% will soon tank the largest economy in the world. It will be like nothing we’ve ever seen before. and thats just the beginning. Greed will eventually tank every major economy in the world. Causing millions to suffer and die. Oprah, Angelina, Brad, Bono, and Bill are not part of the solution. They are part of the problem. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A MULTI-MILLIONAIRE HUMANITARIAN. EXTREME WEALTH HAS MADE WORLD PROSPERITY ABSOLUTELY IMPOSSIBLE. WITHOUT WORLD PROSPERITY, THERE WILL NEVER BE WORLD PEACE OR ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE. GREED KILLS. IT WILL BE OUR DOWNFALL. Of course, the rich will throw a fit and call me a madman. Of course, their ignorant fans will do the same. You have to expect that. But I speak the truth. If you don’t believe me, then copy this entry and run it by any professor of economics or socio-economics. Then tell a friend. Call the local radio station. Re-post this entry or put it in your own words. Be one of the first to predict the worst economic and cultural crisis of all time and explain its cause. WE ARE IN BIG TROUBLE.
Calm down.
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