See post here.
Sarah Palin has given John McCain a nice bounce in the polls. The McCain campaign strategy has found its only conceivable (if highly destructive) path to victory: double down on the Culture Wars. Sarah Palin energizes the right wing, and the justified attacks on her inexperience and lying only make the right wing lash out more. The strategy of dividing America worked just barely well enough for Bush to get two terms. John McCain is an unlikely culture warrior, but he is obviously willing to do absolutely anything to get elected.
Will it work? Probably not. Bush was able to do it with no room to spare, but with a down economy and demographic change it will be hard for McCain to get to 51%. McCain has certainly been polling well for the last two weeks, but his prodigious lies and Palin's unreadiness are becoming the media narrative. Convention bounces often take weeks to fade without external influences, but it's hard to see current polling as anything other than a Palin bubble which is bound to burst.
If Obama were ahead at this point, McCain's goose would be cooked. The polls don't move more than a few points after mid-September. We're not going to cruise to victory - it will be hard fought until the end. The good news for Obama supporters is that McCain has peaked in the polls, but the electoral college is a coin flip. Obama is holding all the Kerry states, Iowa, and New Mexico. If Obama wins either Colorado or Nevada or Virginia or Florida or Ohio, he wins the presidency. McCain pretty much has nowhere to go but down at this point, and I expect we'll see it in the next round of polling. . . .
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