NBC: Clinton wins New Hampshire

From Tim Grieve at Salon:

Defying nearly universal expectation of a humiliating defeat, Hillary Clinton appears to be on the cusp of pulling off a victory in the New Hampshire primaries. With 63 percent of the precincts reporting, she holds a 5,000-vote lead over Barack Obama, and NBC has just called the race for Clinton.

CNN hasn't called the race yet on the ground that Obama "is such a different candidate," and there are still enough votes around Dartmouth College for Obama to win if he carries that area by a huge margin.

Some readers comments (including mine) to the Salon article below

Don't write when you're drunk

I'm sorry, but this swooning over a guy's skin color just leaves me cold. This intoxication with the passive concept of "hope" is a snare and a delusion. The election is not a subject for exercises in creative writing, but for information, analysis and perspective.

There will be euphoria enough for everyone when Bush leaves office and the Democrats gain in Congress. Save the panegyrics for next year.

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good stuff, but substance next time

gary ... this is a real love-feast ... and it's the candidate i want to be the next president. but, if the "establishment" talking points are that the man has no substance behind his flashy, maybe "manipulative," style ... why write a decent article about haiku's and talking mermaids? . . .

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horrible graphic design

I haven't even read the article yet, but that image is really disturbing.

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Oh, Gary

Does he walk on water too.

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Magic!

Looking at the graphic, I half expected to hear Rush Limbaugh's "Barack The Magic Negro" song playing in the background. Missed opportunity, Salon - but nice job of biting on a Rush talking point. . . .

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Hope Means the Possibility of Disappointment

of the symbolic as well as the tactical stakes in this election. But does the title of the article (maybe not written by Kamiya) deliberately evoke the "magic negro" phrase that has been popping up around his campaign? . . .

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Not Everyone In Love with Obama

Obama fever is certainly spreading, and whatever merits the man may have are being magnified by a movement that bares more than a whiff of a personality cult. His followers are so caught up in their own vision of Obama's greatness that they don't seem to realize that their views are not shared by the vast majority of the electorate. . . .

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Be prepared to be disappointed when your new love snores

Honestly, it's a election not the new mocha Messiah. If I had a dime for every electocrat who, we were promised, was the new landlord of the bright shining city on the hill and the dawn of new day, etc etc etc, I could buy an island for myself and make myself a god.

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The Obama and Alchemy..

Alchemy isn't that when you turn bird shit into gold..?

That sounds like The Obama to me..

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The Alchemy of Barack Obama

Very idealistic article. What America needs now is a healthy dose of moral fiber, not a spiritual event. Will our hero be able to bring that to the table? Time will tell.

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Guilty conscience of white america

Obama's Iowa victory and possible win in NH is nothing but guilty conscience of few white liberals and statement by young generation X that they are not as racist as their previous generations. Anyone really believes that if Obama's father was white and Obama's name was Jim, John or Mike and Obama's was as white as John Edwards, he would really have any chance of winning Iowa or NH with the qualifications he brings to the table. He is a two year senator and has spend few years in Illinois senate. No corporation will hire him as a CEO. This looks like Jesse Jackson of 1988 all over again. At least Jesse Jackson won 11 contests including 7 primaries and 4 cacuses and later lost to Dukakis. White liberals will toy with Obama idea, feel good about themselves for sometime and then eventually the reality will set in which will be evident on Feb 5th.

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Obama Is A Big Pussy

Yada, yada, yada. Too many liberals have no concept of what is going on. The Republicans have been kicking your ass and fighting dirty. They just punched you in the face and knocked your glasses off but you're convinced that they won't hit you now because everyone knows you don't hit a man whose glasses are off. Pathetic.

Grow the fuck up. Obama better get some balls if he gets the nomination or the Republicans will destroy him in the general. Barring that, Little George may just decide not to hand over the keys to the White House.

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What a bunch of crap

What a bunch of crap [this one's mine]

Obama hype in the media

I could scarcely believe my eyes when I saw this illustration in Salon this morning. The article it illustrates begins: "Barack Obama's stunning victory in Iowa was a moment of national alchemy." "Alchemy" of course was a medieval pseudoscience whose aim was to turn lead into gold (it didn't work).

Gephyrophobia

B. and I both have this. Here's an article in today's New York Times. This picture looks like something out of my nightmares. It's the Sunshine Skyway Bridge, which traverses Tampa Bay. We drove across it once when I was a kid (the older version of it). I remember my mother being terrified.

From the article:

The Verrazano-Narrows bridge has been called a study in grace.

For Jan Steers, it was a study in terror.

Even thinking about driving across the 4,260-foot suspension span made her start to feel dizzy, made her heart race, her breath tightening into short rapid gasps. . . .

The Tappan Zee Bridge, rising more than 150 feet over the Hudson River, appears to inspire particular panic — so much so that New York State offers the skittish a chauffeur who will transport them across the span.

Similar rescue measures are provided in other places around the country with especially fearsome bridges. Authorities at the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, for example, will dispatch a tow truck to pull panic-stricken drivers to the other side. The Mackinac Bridge, connecting Michigan’s Lower and Upper Peninsulas, provides a transport service like the Tappan Zee’s. [See here also regarding the Chesapeake Bay Bridge.] Mrs. Steers’s phobia was so severe that she was virtually trapped on Staten Island for 13 years. She missed her brother’s wedding in Brooklyn. She sent her husband and two children off on family vacations without her. She had never seen her sister’s house at the Jersey Shore. . . .

On Sept. 20, Mrs. Steers took a small dose of Ativan, a tranquilizer, and got in the car with Mrs. Guardino, who was the driver, and a nurse. She was armed with a video recorder to tape her ride. “I went off Staten Island for the first time in 13 years, and I did O.K.,” she said. . . .

There are very few bridges I drive (or bike) across in Miami, and I'll never drive to Key West again (the last two times I went there, I flew--in no time). Here's the Seven-Mile Bridge in the Keys (a brief stretch of it). It's just a two-lane bridge (older one at right, which is now a fishing pier--what a terror that was):

This is the Mackinac Straits Bridge in Michigan:

Get born again, stop thinking

"I don’t believe that gay marriage is in line with God’s Word, which is found in the Bible. So, what I think doesn’t matter; what I believe is what’s in the Bible and the Bible says that gay marriage is not acceptable." --Actor Stephen Baldwin

(Found at TowleRoad--hear audio clip of Howard Stern interview)

What an idiot. If you're religious, consider that God gave you a brain, not just a book, and I would think He expects you to use it. And Jesus never said a word about homosexuality, much less gay marriage.

Video: Bill stumps for Hill

Click here to watch.

(Mind you that Elizabeth Edwards said she couldn't make her husband black or a woman [or words to that effect].)

Mitt the punching bag

Looks a little punch drunk, huh? From TPM. Comments here ("Mitt's entirely artificial personality and affect"). (I've been encountering "technical difficulties" with TPM tonight--or maybe it's me.) UPDATE: Things seem to be working now.

HGTV's 2008 'Dream Home' in the Florida Keys

On the Gulf side in Isla Morada. Feature here (includes videos). (Looks hurricane-proof but I worry about the spindly coconut palms.)

Hillary tears up

'The Stupidity of Inevitability'

From Turkana at The Left Coaster:

Is it too late for Hillary? That's the question everyone is asking, and the fact that they are asking works against her. Obama is benefitting from the bandwagon effect, but that, itself, gets back to the inevitability game. In the short break between Iowa and New Hampshire, bandwagon excitement can make a huge difference- as it is; and it seems almost certain to easily roll right through South Carolina. Can it be sustained through February 5, and the much larger states, with their much more diverse voting populations? Possibly, but not necessarily. But will the corporate media, who have for so long so loathed the Clintons, succeed in convincing the public that a few quick wins by Obama ends the race? We will see.

At some point, Obama's own seeming inevitability is going to result in a renewed focus on his own flaws and vulnerabilities. His middle name and his youthful indiscretions are, thankfully, not going to be problems, but his unimpressive record and failure to explain what exactly "change" means could be. People care about Iraq and health care and global warming and the housing market. As the excitement of Obama's meteoric ascent wears off, people are going to want from Obama the same answers they have long demanded from Hillary: Why should you be president? How are you going to repair the damage done by the Bush Administration? How are you going to make the country and the world better places? Some are now using almost mystical terms to explain the effect of Obama's rhetoric, but pragmatics will soon reassert their rightful place. . . .

Today's Paul Krugman

"From Hype to Fear"

You see, for 30 years American politics has been dominated by a political movement practicing Robin-Hood-in-reverse, giving unto those that hath while taking from those who don’t. . . .

When the economy is doing reasonably well, the debate is dominated by hype — by the claim that America’s prosperity is truly wondrous, and that conservative economic policies deserve all the credit.

But when things turn down, there is a seamless transition from “It’s morning in America! Hurray for tax cuts!” to “The economy is slumping! Raising taxes would be a disaster!” . . .

But now, without ever acknowledging that maybe things weren’t that great after all, President Bush is warning that given the economy’s problems, “the worst thing the Congress could do is raise taxes on the American people and on American businesses.”

And even more dire warnings are coming from some of the Republican presidential candidates. For example, John McCain’s campaign Web site cautions darkly that “Entrepreneurs should not be taxed into submission. John McCain will make the Bush income and investment tax cuts permanent, keeping income tax rates at their current level and fighting the Democrats’ plans for a crippling tax increase in 2011.”

What “crippling” tax increase, which would tax entrepreneurs into submission, is Mr. McCain talking about? The answer is, proposals by Democrats to let the Bush tax cuts for people making more than $250,000 a year expire, returning upper-income tax rates to the levels that prevailed in the Clinton years. . . .

And what I’m not sure about is whether the Democrats are ready for the fight they’re about to face.

Not to put too fine a point on it, Barack Obama won his impressive victory in Iowa with a sunny, upbeat message of change.

But there’s a powerful political faction in this country that understands very well that any real change will create losers as well as winners. In particular, any serious progressive reform of health care, let alone a broader attempt to reduce middle-class insecurity and inequality, will have to mean higher taxes on the affluent. And members of that faction will do whatever it takes to scare people into believing that change means disaster for the economy. . . .

French chateau for sale (cheap)

More on the smoking ban in French cafés

Edwards campaign manager: Obama sold out to corporate interests

'Let's Not Overreact to Obama's Win'

This from Michael Fauntroy at Huffington Post.

First, beware the fawning media. Virtually all of the coverage of Obama's win has been over-the-top, almost as if he won the nomination. This isn't a surprise with Obama, as the national news media have treated him as if he were the Second Coming from the moment he rocketed to national prominence following his speech at the 2004 Democratic national convention. His personal story and charisma have charmed the media into doing almost no critical analysis of his political positions. Most of the coverage I saw tried to suggest that his win was proof that White voters have overcome their aversion to Black presidential candidates. His chief opponent, Hilary Clinton, on the other hand, has been bashed by the media consistently since she hit the nation's consciousness in 1992. If Clinton's coverage were half as positive as Obama's since her rise to national prominence, then she might have the nomination locked up by now. . . .

Second, it should never be a surprise to anyone when a Black Democrat wins a presidential primary. Democratic voters around the country have been voting for Black presidential candidates for years. After all, the hated Jesse Jackson won seven primaries and four caucuses 20 years ago. He scored wins in, among other places, the White-as-Iowa Vermont (95 percent White) and disproportionately White Delaware (70 percent White). Indeed, the real surprise will be when a Black candidate wins a Republican primary. . . .

Obama's win was solid and comfortable, but it wasn't earthshattering.

Joshua Marshall on the Dem debate

Post is here (I didn't watch that debate either).

In general, I think Obama's the winner tonight. I think Hillary made her case well. I think Edwards had the best debate. But the debate can only be understood in the context of the moment. Right now, Obama's on fire. The first post-Iowa polls show him picking up a big post-caucus bump. He needed to come off well. Not make any mistakes. And not let Hillary open up any strong line of attack against him. And I think he did each one of those things. Which means he gave some reassurance to those who might be hesitating to get on the bandwagon and didn't do or allow anything to happen which significantly changes the trend of the moment, which is moving heavily in his favor.

More from the debate (watch it)

Digby on the Republican debate

Surprisingly short and sweet (I didn't watch the debate).

I'm finally getting around to watching the Republicans debate from yesterday and listened to all of them (except for Ron Paul) enthusiastically sign on to the Bush Doctrine and war without end against the islamofasciterrorists and anybody else who looks at America sideways.

And then the candidates, including the three out of six wealthy cancer survivors, all agreed that we have the best health care system in the world, people should buy their own policies and if someone doesn't, he shouldn't be allowed to be a free rider.

We also need to round up and jail the criminal illegals and put the rest of them at the back of the line.

Vote Republican: We'll cull the herd.

Americablog's Chris on Huckabee's "FairTax" proposal

Like the Republicans' "Clear Skies" and "Healthy Forests,"* you can bet "FairTax" is the opposite of what the name implies. Here's Chris:

Here we go again. Another Republican who wants to turn back the clock to before the Industrial Revolution. Haven't we seen enough lunacy from the loony party? I have to laugh with the VAT tax Huckabee (oh sorry, he's calls it a "FairTax") that will somehow scrap the current tax system and replace it with a highly unfair tax on the middle class. Haven't we already debated this issue decades (centuries?) ago and concluded that this will be a big hit to those in the middle? And taxing everything that moves, including little Billy and Susie who are doing jobs for the neighborhood such as mowing lawns, shoveling snow and babysitting? How fair is that?

Even Adam Smith concluded that a progressive tax (what we have today) was a better option that would be fair to all economic groups. Haven't we already seen enough giveaways to the richest Americans in the last few years? Just how well has that worked for the rest of us? . . .

More details on the FairTax proposal from economist Brad DeLong here.

________________
*"Now it's important to know that the Bush plan that will allow coal plants to emit more pollution and mercury emissions than the Clean Air Act would have required is called the "Clear Skies Initiative." (The clearcutting bill is known as 'Healthy Forests.')" [Source]

Obama's 'media honeymoon'

From Joan Walsh at Salon. After heaping praise on Obama, she writes:

There were jokes about how the fact that the normally prompt Obama started almost 45 minutes late could be the beginning of the end of Obama's media honeymoon -- how dare he keep the media waiting! -- but they were only jokes, for now. The reality is, Obama's media honeymoon won't end today, but it will end. We'll learn if the "working majority" he's trying to create will be strong enough to sustain him when that happens. . . .

But I did like this quote she pulled from an Obama speech:

"You have good reason to be angry after what's happened the last seven years," promising that when he's elected, "the days of Scooter Libby justice, Brownie incompetence and Karl Rove politics will finally be over."

Good talk.

From the New Hampshire Debate

Funny.

Forgiveness may be good for your health

Baltimore Sun story here.

Forgiveness - a virtue embraced by almost every religious tradition as a balm for the soul - may be medicine for the body, researchers suggest. In less than a decade, those preaching and studying forgiveness have amassed an impressive slate of findings on its possible health benefits.

They have shown that "forgiveness interventions" - often just a couple of short sessions in which the wounded are guided toward positive feelings for an offender - can improve cardiovascular function, diminish chronic pain, relieve depression and boost quality of life among the very ill.

Like proper nutrition and exercise, forgiveness appears to be a behavior that a patient can learn, exercise and repeat as needed to prevent disease and preserve health.

Psychologist Loren Toussaint of Luther College in Decorah, Iowa, and colleagues were the first to establish a long-term link between people's health and their propensity to forgive. . . .

'Man Using GPS Drives in Front of Train'

Story here.

BEDFORD HILLS, N.Y. - A Global Positioning System can tell a driver a lot of things -- but apparently not when a train is coming. A computer consultant driving a rental car drove onto train tracks Wednesday using the instructions his GPS unit gave him. A train was barreling toward him, but he escaped in time and no one was injured.

The driver had turned right, as the system advised, and the car somehow got stuck on the tracks at the crossing. He jumped out and tried to warn the engineer by waving. He got out of the way just before the train slammed into the car at 60 mph, Metro-North railroad spokesman Dan Brucker said Thursday.

The car was pushed more than 100 feet during the fiery crash. . . .

Michael Moore's Take on the Results in Iowa

Mike's Letter from his website:

There was no doubt about it. The message from Iowa tonight was simple, but deafening:

If you're a candidate for President, and you voted for the war, you lose. And if you voted and voted and voted for the war -- and never once showed any remorse -- you really lose.

In short, if you had something to do with keeping us in this war for four-plus years, you are not allowed to be the next president of the United States.

Over 70% of Iowan Democrats voted for candidates who either never voted for the invasion of Iraq (Obama, Richardson, Kucinich) or who have since admitted their mistake (Edwards, Biden, Dodd). I can't tell you how bad I feel for Senator Clinton tonight. I don't believe she was ever really for this war. But she did -- and continued to do -- what she thought was the politically expedient thing to eventually get elected. And she was wrong. And tonight she must go to sleep wondering what would have happened if she had voted her conscience instead of her calculator. . . .

With all due respect to Senator Obama's victory, the most important news out of the caucus this evening was the whopping, room-busting turnout of Democrats. 239,000 people showed up to vote Democratic tonight (93% more than in '04, which was a record year), while only 115,000 showed up to vote Republican. And this is a red state! The Republican caucuses looked anemic. The looks on their faces were glum, tired. As the camera followed some of them into their caucus sites, they held their heads down or turned away, sorta like criminals on a perp walk. They know their days of power are over. They know their guy blew it. Their only hope was to vote for a man who has a direct line to heaven. Huckabee is their Hail Mary pass. But don't rule him out. He's got a sense of humor, he's downhome, and he said that if elected, he'd put me on a boat to Cuba. Hey, a free Caribbean vacation! . . .

'Disney bans children from fanciest park restaurant'

AP story:

Walt Disney World, home of Mickey Mouse, Tigger and Tinkerbell, has banned young children from its fanciest restaurant.

Beginning this week, children under 10 are no longer welcome at Victoria & Albert's in the Grand Floridian Resort & Spa, the theme park's only restaurant with an AAA five-diamond rating. . ..

Disney says it is responding to its guests' desires after surveys showed many diners wanted a more-adult restaurant atmosphere, said Rosemary Rose, Disney's vice president for food, beverage and merchandise operations. . . .

Still, Rose said there are plenty of other dining options for families. Disney World has 97 other full-service restaurants. She also said that only about three families a month ever brought young children to Victoria & Albert's, which has the highest prices and the most intimate and elegant atmosphere at Disney World.

Men are required to wear jackets, and women must wear dresses or pantsuits. The hushed atmosphere features live harp music, and the menu, which changes daily, offers seven-course dinners that can last as long as three hours. Prices start at $125 a person. . . .

Mouse Planet here. "Everything but the Parks. All you can do without visiting the theme parks."

Health Insurance Reform and the Candidates

Also from the Jan. 2008 Consumer Reports:

Insurance reform proposals by most of the major presidential candidates count on the private individual market to expand coverage. Several candidates propose tax incentives for people to buy individual insurance. Consumers Union, the nonprofit publisher of Consumer Reports, opposes that approach to insurance reform because it does nothing to fix underlying problems, such as medical underwriting, and the tax breaks wouldn’t be enough to make insurance affordable for people with lower incomes.

Other candidates propose to expand coverage by bringing more people into the risk pool. Techniques include requiring everyone to have health insurance, allowing individuals to buy into large public or private risk pools, requiring insurers to cover everyone regardless of health history, and subsidizing premiums for lower-income consumers. Consumers Union believes that those are more promising approaches to insurance reform, so long as they are coupled with vigorous efforts to control costs, eliminate waste, and encourage better coordination of care for chronic conditions.

Health Insurance "Death Spiral"

"The $4,284 monthly premium." From the Jan. 2008 Consumer Reports:

Companies also control their risk by using a maneuver known as closing a block or book of business. They stop accepting new customers in a plan, which kicks off a process known as a "death spiral."

Even if everyone in an insurance plan starts out relatively healthy, as time goes on, people get sick, and the cost to insure them rises. Once the pool is closed, costs for the remaining members rise inexorably. Healthier members find cheaper plans, but sicker ones are effectively forced out because they can't afford coverage.

Once that process gets going, premiums on individual health insurance policies can rise at a breathtaking rate. Jesse Paul, 59, an Indianapolis lawyer, paid $25.50 a month for his individual, $100- deductible Prudential major medical policy when he took it out in 1980. Premiums rose steadily for years but at a pace that Paul deemed "rational in terms of medical costs." In 2003 the premium shot up from about $1,200 to about $1,900 a month at renewal.

When Paul complained to the state insurance department, he learned that the policy had been closed to new entrants for years, that he was one of only 400 to 600 customers left in the state, and that the premium increase was permissible under Indiana law. Paul reached his breaking point when he got his latest renewal notice in August; the monthly premium was now $4,284. He quickly found out he was uninsurable on the private market because he took medications for high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and allergies. He is now insured by the Indiana high-risk pool for a premium of $650 a month.

If lawyers can no longer afford this system, then you know it's got to change.

Latest from New Hampshire

During campaigning Saturday, a noticeably more freewheeling Clinton subtly likened Obama to Democratic nemesis President Bush while Edwards mocked the idea of a nice candidate bringing change.

AP story here.

Go Left TV

Medicaid story treated at length.

Update

To the post on Medicaid below.

Check this out from the Kaiser Family Foundation. (Premiums for family coverage are rising even faster than for single coverage.)

Take as an example a single person with income at 300 percent of FPL [Federal Poverty Level], which was about $23,220 in 1996 and about $27,930 in 2004. A health insurance plan that cost the person $1,200 in 1996 would consume just 5.2% of income. With premium inflation, that plan would cost over $2,230 in 2004, or about 8.0% of income for a person with income at 300 percent of FPL. This share of income going to health insurance would continue to rise over time as long as health insurance premiums rise faster than FPL.

(See this also, about the decline in employer-based coverage due to rising costs.)

Hollywood, Fla.

Here's a pretty good article on Hollywood ("Palms and Sand, but No Boutique Hotels (Yet)"). Pictured above is Le Tub on the Intracoastal Waterway (best burger in the country according to GQ magazine). Lots of links.

I've got some things to do. Will be back later.

Some of Jim Ward's impressions

Bree Walker

She talked about her "lobster-claw syndrome" (ectrodactyly) on the Stephanie Miller Show this week. (She used to wear fake hands.)

Bree bought Cindy Sheehan's "Camp Casey" in Crawford, Texas this year when Sheehan decided to quit her anti-war protesting. (Bree had a role on Carnivàle as Sabina, The Scorpion Lady.)

Stephanie Miller does Hillary impression

Stephanie is out on vacation this week from her radio show. Bree Walker has been filling in. (I prefer her to Elayne Boosler and Merrill Markoe, though I used to love Elayne Boosler's comedy routines.) I listened to some of the show this week but spent most of the time catching up on reading. (I guess I miss Stephanie and the "mooks.")

This video is from a few months back, when Stephanie broadcast live on MSNBC for a week following Don Imus' departure. She does the show with voice actor Jim Ward and executive producer Chris Lavoie. (Normally she wears a baseball cap.) If you've never heard the show before, it's hilarious. (She also does a great Rush Limbaugh impression--wish I could find a clip of that.)

Smack 'em down

Women and gay men are 'worst drivers'

Telegraph story here.

"Gay people appear to show a ‘mosaic’ of performance, parts of which are male-like and other parts of which are female-like," he said.

"Gay-Friendly" Ads

Check 'em out. (Seen at Towleroad.)

'U.S. Curtailing Bids to Expand Medicaid Rolls'

While Bush talking about cutting taxes AGAIN.

The Bush administration is imposing restrictions on the ability of states to expand eligibility for Medicaid, in an effort to prevent them from offering coverage to families of modest incomes who, the administration argues, may have access to private health insurance. . . .

“We want states to focus on enrolling their neediest population before they consider expanding Medicaid and CHIP to middle-income families,” Mr. Fratto said. “This policy demonstrates the president’s compassion. He wants to direct scarce tax dollars to those with the greatest needs.”

Administration officials say government health programs start to “crowd out” private insurance when they cover families with incomes from 250 percent to 300 percent of the poverty level — about $51,600 to $62,000 for a family of four. . . .

In addition, federal officials challenged Louisiana to explain why it did not want to enforce the one-year waiting period for children who had lost private health insurance because of a parent’s death or the failure of a business where a parent was employed. In such cases, the state replied, the loss of coverage is involuntary, and the waiting period would “penalize children and families for circumstances beyond their control.” . . . [Emphasis added.]

"Compassion"?! Sounds like they care more about protecting the insurance companies than protecting people. (Of course they do!) Story here.

Miami still nice

No hoodie today, just the jacket. No long pajama bottoms and t-shirt tonight--it's back to gym shorts and tank top (and bare feet). The air conditioner is still off, however. (That should save us a little money.)

More on Obama's win

David Kurtz at TPM has this.

Nathan Newman notes that Obama's win last night could translate into "realignment of a whole range of voters into the progressive column, not just in November but over time."

More on the results from Iowa

Good collection from Turkana:

Ken Silverstein, of Harper's:

On the Democratic side, Edwards is finished. His only chance, remote even if he’d been successful, was winning Iowa. He didn’t and his campaign is done.

I’m not a big fan of either Obama or Hillary. The former is charismatic and intelligent, and that certainly counts for something. But if you look at his voting record, his campaign donors and his key advisors, he certainly doesn’t have the profile of a politician who intends to be a force for “change.” It was easy for him to make his famous anti-war speech in 2002 from Illinois, but would he have opposed the invasion if he’d been in the U.S. Senate at the time? I seriously doubt it. The only reason I can find to feel positive about Hillary (and it’s not a bad one) is that I have a
13-year-old daughter who is rooting for her.

As for the race, I don’t think Hillary Clinton is dead yet. In fact, the strongest thing in her favor may be that the same collective media wisdom that for so long decreed her the nominee has now decided that Obama is all but a shoo-in. Hillary has too much money and too much support from the Democratic political establishment to crash and burn just because of yesterday’s vote. And while Obama will get his “bump” from winning Iowa, I suspect there are also large numbers of voters in New Hampshire (and elsewhere) who don’t like the idea of Iowa deciding the whole race.

All of that said, if Obama wins New Hampshire Hillary really starts smelling like a loser. If Hillary wins next week, I’d bet that she’s the Democratic nominee. . . .

Walter Shapiro, Salon:

There will be many attempts in the next few days to define Obama's magnetic appeal -- and to explain why Iowa, one of the most monochromatic states in the nation, turned its love light on a candidate whose grandmother lives in a village in Kenya. It may be a case where emotion (the bring-us-together hopes projected onto Obama) trumps clear-eyed rationality (Clinton's here-are-my-programs approach to politics) and populist fervor (Edwards' crusade against "corporate greed").

It is striking how Obama's rhetoric differs from standard political oratory by being a statistic-free zone. In the closing days in Iowa, Obama might talk for 40 minutes in a tiny town like Perry while citing only one or two numbers. In contrast, Clinton on the stump is a human pocket calculator, constantly telling voters how much purchasing power they have lost under Bush (about $1,000) and how many jobs were created under Bill Clinton (lots!). Even Edwards spices his talks with a burst of numbers about the extent of poverty in America.

But for Obama, the only number that matters is his comfortable 8 percent victory margin over Edwards and Clinton. With the (winter) wind at his back heading into New Hampshire, Obama is now the favorite in a contest almost certain to give the Democrats either an African-American or a woman presidential nominee. But Hillary Clinton may soon be reminding voters that one candidate managed to make it to the White House despite losing both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary -- and that late bloomer was none other than Bill Clinton in 1992. . . .

Turkana said this about the Iowa caucuses here.

Realistically, the Iowa Caucuses are a ridiculous measure of the electorate. It's a massively flawed system in an absurdly unrepresentative state. But none of that matters. What matters is how the media spin it, and what happened tonight will be easy for their simplistic framing: Obama won big, Hillary sputtered to a weak third place, not even breaking 30%. Edwards really needed to win, and didn't. . . .

Joe Conason: Why Hillary lost in Iowa

Strategist not helping.

"But Obama's achievement is not diminished in any way by observing that he enjoyed the unintentional assistance of Hillary Clinton, who suffered the consequences of consistently choosing caution over inspiration. From the high point of her primary campaign last September, when she introduced a strong healthcare platform that overshadowed those of her opponents, she eventually fell back into the calculated dullness that is the hallmark of her longtime advisors, most notably her strategist Mark Penn.

"Indeed, Penn can serve as the symbol of what went wrong in Iowa for Clinton and what is least attractive about her campaign. A corporate consultant of consummate cynicism and conservative instincts, Penn's approach is always more or less the same old sameness, with all the clichéd assumptions about the peril of populism and the safety of centrism. Apparently he could neither imagine that Obama might widen the caucus electorate nor conceive a serious strategy to cope with that challenge. Hillary Clinton has always lacked the suppleness and versatility of her husband, and that was a deficit for which Penn had nothing to compensate. The embarrassment he caused her months ago, when reporters exposed his public relations company's union-busting division, was a bellwether.

"Weighed down by her advisors and her own habitual style, Clinton was unable to exploit the mistakes committed by Obama. His sly gestures toward the right and the Republicans, his inadequate healthcare proposal and his Social Security gaffes offered her the chance to flank him on the left, where he was strongest and she was weakest, owing to her Iraq war vote. She scored in the debate over healthcare, but retreated when he attacked her plan's mandated coverage (as if his own plan didn't include a mandate to insure children).

"Certainly she should have confronted Obama squarely for reciting the Bush line on Social Security's 'insolvency,' instead of taking glancing shots at him. By opening up that topic, which began the unraveling of the president's second term in early 2005, the Illinois rookie made himself highly vulnerable. But Clinton could not bring herself to speak forthrightly and forcefully on Social Security -- just as she had declined to mount the barricades against the White House privatization effort. . . .

"Over the past two months in Iowa, she could have stood up as the defender of Social Security -- and proved that she knew not only what she was talking about but who she is, while amplifying real doubts about her opponent. Instead, the moment passed . . . .

"Knocked down but not out, she has only two plausible choices going forward. The first is to demand the hard substance and specifics of change that underpin Obama's lofty rhetoric. Both the conservative admiration for Obama and his gauzy red-blue thematic scheme depend heavily on his reluctance to discuss how he plans to achieve a progressive agenda. If he speaks out as a progressive, he will draw fire from the right.

"Indeed, such candid exchanges are likely to prove that Clinton is correct in anticipating a tough, nasty, expensive general election campaign rather than a campfire lovefest. Even if she loses the nomination to Obama, she will have done him an important favor by forcing him to hone his defenses. Those who sought to destroy the Clintons for eight years and that then smeared John Kerry in 2004 are not about to surrender the White House to any Democrat, not even a smart, nice and charismatic young guy from Chicago."

Column here.

The Iowa Caucuses

I'm sorry, but this is just silly. The goings-on in Precinct 67.

Paul Pettinger, a software engineer who had still not made up his mind (he was leaning Edwards) as the initial count neared, pointed to the dozens of Democrats lined up against the side wall as the initial parliamentary maneuvers began. "Most of the people who don't know what they're doing are for Obama -- they're the new voters," he said knowingly. Of course, Pettinger himself last attended a caucus in the 1980s.

Even before the official count began, the Edwards group knew they were in trouble, since they calculated they needed nine more supporters to avoid being shut out in Precinct 67. Mari Culver -- the wife of the governor and John Edwards' leading Iowa supporter -- said determinedly, "We've got to start horse-trading. We've got to go to the Richardson people."

The supporters of the New Mexico governor did not even stay together long as a group, but started wandering the room looking for new political homes. When the first-round numbers were announced, with the governor doing the arithmetic for the caucus chairman, the results were: Obama 245, Hillary Clinton 106, Edwards 75 (they had gotten their delegate), Richardson 26, Biden 18, Dodd 12, Kucinich 5 and uncommitted 4 (including Gov. Culver himself, who had always intended to remain neutral). . . .

Ultimately, most of the Dodd people went for Obama. It was not entirely a high-minded conversion experience. As a young woman who was part of the obedient migration to Obama put it, "All the Dodd people went in exchange for something that I don't really understand."

The final round of maneuvering led to a count of Obama 276, Clinton 109 and Edwards 80. Under caucus arithmetic (which is too intricate for mere mortals), Obama received five delegates, Clinton two and Edwards two. Mari Culver's maneuvering had taken her chosen candidate from no delegates to a tie with Clinton in the numbers reported to the state party. As most of the Democrats headed home with the presidential vote over at 8:00, precinct chairman Kim Jones had one final word for the group, "If you think this is total, absolute chaos -- welcome to Iowa." . . .

Full story here.

'LATE GUYS TURN INTO "CAVE" MEN'

With the writers' strike going on, these two have had a lot of time on their hands to grow out their beards. (They're back on the air now but I haven't seen them.)

I think Conan's beard looks a lot better than his hair, no matter what he (or his wife) might think.

Humorous New Yorker piece here. Watch Conan's Latenightunderground blog video here. Another here.

Still a Chill in Miami

This weather has lifted my mood. It's been so unseasonably hot here. (Yes, I do believe in global warming.) Also, I'm glad the holidays are over and things are back to "normal." Like some people count down the days till Christmas, I count down the days till January 2nd. Back in my pajama bottoms, t-shirt and old socks tonight.

It was 40° when I left home this morning (probably felt like 30-something). I was wearing my hoodie (with the hood on) under a leather jacket I bought a couple of years ago in San Francisco.* I noticed this to be the fashion this morning as I was walking from the bus stop to work (since the escalators and elevators weren't working at the Metromover stations--I guess they were frozen--and I didn't feel like climbing the f****ing stairs). Didn't mind the walk, however, and still got to work on time.

________________
*(This weather kind of reminds me of San Francisco).

Today's French Lesson

Only in San Francisco (Church St. Muni station). (Found at Towleroad (/film via Defamer).)

'Who should be the world's most powerful person?'

"As Iowa's caucuses start a global ball rolling, my dream team is President(s) Clinton and Vice-President Obama". Some foreign perspective:

In the real world, that most powerful person will be an American. . . .

As between Democrats and Republicans, the choice for the world's floating non-voters is, this time around, what Americans call a "no-brainer". After two terms of one of the most incompetent and unsuccessful administrations in recent history, it's time for a change. Were there an outstanding Republican candidate, this might be a closer call; but there isn't. John McCain has a remarkable life story, which commands respect. He is probably too old, and perhaps too erratic, to be a good president. All the others have major weaknesses, whether of character (Giuliani), ideology (Huckabee) or backbone (Romney). . . .

How could anyone with an ounce of judgment vote for a man who says, as Mitt Romney has said, that "we ought to double Guantánamo"?

That leaves the Democrats. I started 2007 as an enthusiastic Obamaite. I go into 2008 a sober Clintonian. I continue to believe that Barack Obama is the only candidate who could change the United States' image overnight. It is now consistently less popular across the globe than at any time since international polling began. Obama personifies those aspects of American society that even some of Washington's fiercest critics admire, and he has some good ideas too. The trouble is, the more I watched him last year, the more convinced I became that he is not yet ready for the job. . . .

In an increasingly dangerous world, with this new year ushered in by a nuclear-armed Pakistan trembling on the verge of anarchy, we can't afford that blunder-time any more.

The point about the Clintons is that they know the mistakes to avoid because they've already made most of them. They've learned the hard way. . . .

Hillary herself has become, at 60, absolutely formidable. Superbly briefed on every issue, almost word perfect, scarcely ever putting a foot wrong, tried and tested as few human beings have been. At a cattle auction site in Ames, Iowa, the other day, she joked that they could "look inside [her] mouth", as farmers do with cattle, if it helped them to make up their minds. And the truth is that if anyone in the world has been "looked inside the mouth", it is the Clintons.

Is she simpatica? No. At least not as a public persona. The outward warmth is all with Bill. Frank? That's not exactly what the record suggests. Shall we say, as honest as a lawyer. But we don't need the most powerful person in the world to be nice. We need her to be good at the job - grownup, knowledgable, responsible, tough, a safe pair of hands after eight years of a blunderer. . . .

What the return of the Clintons would not do is to work an Obama effect on America's image abroad. Instead, millions around the world will ask: what kind of a democracy is it in which the elected president is always called either Bush or Clinton? So we need Obama too. Give him a few more years of hard experience, such as Hillary has garnered, and he could make an inspirational president. And what better way to gain that experience than by serving as her vice-president? . . .

Full story here.

'Clinton ends Iowa campaign with display of political might'

Story from The Guardian.

Hillary Clinton wheeled out her fabled political machine last night, hoping the display would help power her to a strong finish in the Iowa caucuses. . . .

She was welcomed on stage by her husband and former president, Bill; his former secretary of state, Madeleine Albright; the former Nato supreme commander, General Wesley Clark; and Hollywood stars Mary Steenburgen and Ted Danson. . . .

But despite the reliance on Clinton's familiar claims of experience, she was not above borrowing one of Obama's most popular themes: hope for genuine change in Washington.

"After seven years of the Bush administration there is a feeling in the land that somehow we can't solve all our problems, a sense of fatalism that has affected us," she said. "Well I don't believe that."

Clinton brought her closing arguments to an even wider audience last night with a two-minute advertisement that aired on every 6pm newscast across the state. . . .

Tom Wolfe gets new publisher for Miami book

Story here.

Tom Wolfe, the author of sprawling social novels like “The Bonfire of the Vanities” and “A Man in Full,” has severed his 42-year relationship with Farrar, Straus & Giroux and agreed to sell the rights to publish his next novel, to be set in Miami, to Little, Brown & Company. People involved in the negotiations said on Wednesday that Mr. Wolfe’s advance for the new book was close to $7 million. . . .

“Two years ago when I got the idea of doing a book on immigration, people would say, ‘Oh, that’s fascinating,’ and then they would go to sleep standing up like a horse. Since then the subject has become a little more exciting, and in Miami it’s not only exciting, it’s red hot.” . . .

A more "humane" way to execute?

Story here.

When a state panel recommended last April that Tennessee abandon the three chemicals used in executions across the nation in favor of the single drug usually used in animal euthanasia, the state’s corrections commissioner said no. . . .

“If you change,” Professor Denno continued, “you’re admitting there was something wrong with the prior method. All those people you were executing, you could have been doing it in a better, more humane way.” . . .

Lethal injection protocols nationwide were copied from one developed in Oklahoma in 1977 — the year after the Supreme Court reinstituted the death penalty — based on advice from a medical school professor to a state senator. They call for a short-acting barbiturate to render the inmate unconscious, followed by a paralytic and then a chemical to stop the heart.

If the first chemical works, there is no dispute that the process is quick and painless. If it does not, there is no dispute that the inmate will suffer intense and terrifying pain. But because the inmate is paralyzed, it may not be possible to tell whether the first drug worked. . . .

Dr. Gray, who has since died, had only one objection, Dr. Etheredge recalled. “He said it was a great idea except that people would think we are treating people the same way that we’re treating animals. He was afraid of a hue and cry.” . . .

These days, opponents of that protocol make the opposite argument of the one Dr. Gray feared. They say that death row inmates deserve to be treated at least as well as animals. . . .

Don't have a heart attack in a hospital

"You’re better off having your arrest at Nordstrom, where I’m standing right now, because there are 15 people around me."

DR. LESLIE A. SAXON, the chief of cardiology at the University of Southern California, on a study that found hospitals are too slow to respond to cardiac arrests in a third of cases. [Story here.]

Paris fuming over smoking ban

Spotted this in The Guardian:

But yesterday, on the Left Bank where Sartre once lit Simone de Beauvoir's fags with impunity, France's traditional "café-clope" - morning coffee and cigarette - was now only possible by braving freezing temperatures or pavement heaters that singe your hair off.

"This is imbecilic," said Jean-Yves Oussedik, a historian, puffing his pipe outside the literary cafe Les Deux Magots. "A complete ban is ridiculous." Outside Café de Flore, once the smoke-filled retreat of existentialists, advertising student Sonia Bourezma, 27, wondered if all this non-smoking stuff wasn't just a touch too American. "But in reality people will do what they're told."

Banning smoking might be American, but judging by the public's positive response - studies before the ban showed 70% support - it will be just one more US trend embraced by French society. Even among the diehard smokers in tiny tabacs, no one wants to risk a fine.

'In France, Resisting a Smoking Ban is Called Art'

From the WSJ Health Blog:

But in Lyon, the owner of Cafe 203 mounted an exhibit of photos of dirty ash trays and posted a sign reading “Cultural and social experimental zone: you are exposing yourself to the threat of second-hand smoke.” He plans to flout the ban — which carries fines both for smokers and business owners that permit smoking — by allowing smoking for a couple hours in the middle of the day. He hopes to cover the cost of the fines by selling decorated ash trays.

AFP story here. Video (in French) here.

I didn't see Obama advertising on Drudge

I just popped in there for a minute or two, but that's the scuttlebutt going around. Joshua Marshall at TPM has this to say:

[I]n the course of building TPM over the last few years I have, quite in spite of myself, become something of an expert on the ins and outs and mechanics of online advertising.

The simple fact is that just because you see candidate X's ad on site Y does not mean that candidate X 'advertised' on that site, in the sense of deciding to do so or necessarily knowing anything about it. These days the vast majority of internet advertising -- especially in the non-MSM world where sites don't have their own in-house ad sales forces -- is done through intermediaries often called 'remnant' ad bureaus.

The advertiser can just say I want my ad to be viewed this many times, or I want it to play in this geographical area or on sites with a certain demographic, etc.

So, just to be clear, maybe the Obama camp has decided to do some advertising on Drudge. I have no idea. But simply seeing an Obama ad show up on Drudge's site does not tell you anything. They might well be as surprised as anyone.

Is Obama the next Joe Lieberman?

This blogger seems to think so.

More on the Iowa caucuses

Article here:

Because the caucuses, held in the early evening, do not allow absentee voting, they tend to leave out nearly entire categories of voters: the infirm, soldiers on active duty, medical personnel who cannot leave their patients, parents who do not have baby sitters, restaurant employees on the dinner shift, and many others who work in retail, at gas stations and in other jobs that require evening duty.

As in years past, voters must present themselves in person, at a specified hour, and stay for as long as two. And if these caucuses are anything like prior ones, only a tiny percentage of Iowans will participate. In 2000, the last year in which both parties held caucuses, 59,000 Democrats and 87,000 Republicans voted, in a state with 2.9 million people. In 2004, when the Republicans did not caucus, 124,000 people turned out for the Democratic caucuses. . . .

While the Republican caucuses are fairly simple — voters can leave shortly after they declare their preferences — Democratic caucuses can require more time and multiple candidate preferences from participants. They do not conform to the one-person, one-vote rule, because votes are weighted according to a precinct’s past level of participation. Ties can be settled by coin toss or picking names out of a hat. . . .

How many people saw the ball drop?

It could be a million, but

The Times calculated the total surface area on Seventh Avenue and Broadway, including the street and sidewalk, from Central Park South to 34th Street (where many people in 1999 watched the ball drop on large television screens).

Using a measurement of two square feet per person, which has long been standard in estimating crowd sizes, the analysis determined that the total capacity of the viewing area that year was approximately 430,000 people. Adding some additional capacity to account for spillover onto side streets, the analysis determined that there was room for about 700,000 people — during what was certainly the most ballyhooed celebration in the history of the Times Square event.

This year’s crowd covered less area, however, than that throng. It extended from Central Park South only to 42nd Street, along Broadway and Seventh Avenue, Mr. Browne said, with some additional crowds in Central Park and along the side streets.

Chilly in Miami

Right now it's 45° (but "feels like 40"). We're using the old-fashioned, natural air conditioning now (windows open)--the newfangled machine is off. I have on long pajama bottoms, the t-shirt with the arms cut off, and a pair of holey socks. (The tile floors are cold. Lucy is wondering, why's it so cold in here? Bootsy is cuddled up on the eurotop bed.) I may have to put on a pajama top later. UPDATE: flannel pajama top on.

'Huckabee criticizes Romney for not having executed anyone as governor'

From the The Carpetbagger Report via the Salon Blog Report.

Isn’t blood-lust a bad thing?

I hesitate to give too much attention to Mike Huckabee’s promote-my-ad-for-free attack, but Michael Crowley raises a good point.

About mid-way through the ad, during a litany of accusations against Mitt Romney, Huckabee criticizes his rival with this data point: “No executions.”

Apparently, Huckabee — you know, the evangelical, pro-life Republican — is going after Romney for not having executed any Americans during his gubernatorial tenure.

I realize Republican politics are far more crass than norms should allow, but it’s disconcerting to think “You didn’t kill anyone” has suddenly become a criticism in conservative circles.

'Y'all fat, and y'all eat too much'

"'Hearty Eaters' Say Buffet Banned Them".

HOUMA, La. -- A 6-foot-3, 265-pound man says a restaurant overcharged him for his trips to the buffet line [at the Manchuria Restaurant], then banned him and a relative because they're hearty eaters. A spokesman for the restaurant denies the claim. . . .

On his most recent visit, he said, a waitress gave him and his wife's cousin, 44-year-old Michael Borrelli, a bill for $46.40, roughly double the buffet price for two adults. . . .

Houma accountant Thomas Campo said the men were charged an extra $10 each on Dec. 21 because they made a habit of dining exclusively on the more expensive seafood dishes, including crab legs and frog legs. . . .

Labit said he insisted on paying but was told not to come back. He complained that when seafood on the buffet line runs out, the restaurant only grudgingly cooks more. . .

A million people and no bathroom

This from Joe at Joe.My.God.:

"Over one million people will jam Times Square tonight to watch the ball drop. One million people with NO access to a bathroom. The police are recommending that attendees not have anything to drink for at least two hours before arriving."

Not my idea of fun. As one commenter wrote: "SO not worth it - done it and it was AWFUL." Another comment: "I have been in NYC all my life and NEVER did the TS thing. It sounds horrendous. WHY?, other than being a brain-dead tourist, would anyone subject themselves to acting like some corralled cattle? At least cattle can pee on the grass. I will be with friends eating pizza and sipping champagne. So classy!"

Log Cabin Republicans' television ad

I'm not a big fan of this organization but I thought this was good. Click here.

Noisy Neighbor, Part II

Remember that the handyman working next door said he would be moving the sound system out of the bedroom last Sunday? (See here.) Well, he didn't. Last night, as I lay down to take a brief nap before the New Year's celebrations began, the music started up again, loud as ever. So I called him on the phone, and he admitted he hadn't removed the stereo from the room, said he would turn it off while I took my nap, and asked me to call him when I got up. I was then able to sleep undisturbed for an hour. Afterwards I called him repeatedly but he didn't answer.

The music resumed after midnight, which didn't bother us. But by 3:00 a.m. when it was still blasting, I called him up again. He said that Security had told him that, it being New Year's, he was allowed to blast the music till 5:00. (I.e., he was being an asshole.) After I told him I'd call the police, he started banging on the wall between the apartments!

To make a long story short, I went out into the hall. The owner (his sister, not a friend) had just happened to stop by on her way back to her parents' from a party. She told me her brother had had a lot to drink and that he's not well, may not have much longer to live (I didn't ask), and takes medication. He was wild at first (as I observed) but the sister managed to calm him down. (That was the first time I'd seen what he looked like.) Finally we all shook hands, they showed me the work he'd been doing (not so great but then it was pretty dark in there), and I invited them over and gave them a glass of champagne.

The sister, who is attractive and well-groomed (unlike the brother) and has always been polite, had received my letter about the noise and was extremely apologetic. Let's see what happens. The work is supposed to be finished this week. (I told them, half-jokingly, to get an iPod.)

Blogger arrested in Saudi Arabia

Saw this in The Guardian:

Al-Farhan is one of the few bloggers who uses his real name. His blog headline reads: "Searching for freedom, dignity, justice, equality, shoura and all the rest of lost Islamic values.'' Shoura is Arabic for public consultation. . . .

In it, he also said he believed Saudi authorities were after him because he "wrote about political prisoners in Saudi Arabia.''

Al-Farhan added that officials asked him to sign an apology but that he wasn't ready to do that.

"An apology for what? Apologizing because I said the government is liar when it accused those people of supporting terrorism,'' he said.

Another Saudi blogger, Ahmad Al-Omran, told Arab News that al-Farhan's arrest could have been an attempt to intimidate other bloggers.

Refrigerator Art from Cuba

Click here.

Visit San Juan

Click here.

Coney Island to be redeveloped

Video here.

'Reconciling the realist with the rhetorician'

Editorial in International Herald Tribune by John Vinocur.

Regardless of Iraq, regardless of a primary campaign pitch that must not alienate the activists of the Democratic Party's left wing, Obama has in parallel laid out a creed [in "The Audacity of Hope"] that seemingly brings him more into spiritual alignment with Ronald Reagan than Jimmy Carter. . . .

'A Tale of Political Dirty Tricks Makes the Case for Election Reform'

NYT editorial by Adam Cohen.

In New Hampshire’s hotly contested 2002 Senate race, Democratic get-out-the-vote phone banks were jammed with incoming calls on Election Day. The Republican[,] John Sununu, won re-election by under 20,000 votes, and Allen Raymond, a Republican Party operative, went to jail for his role in the jamming.

Mr. Raymond has now written a book about his experiences, “How to Rig an Election: Confessions of a Republican Operative.” In it, he paints a picture of the corruption of modern politics that should leave no doubt about the creativity and cynicism of operatives like Mr. Raymond or the need for tough new election-reform legislation. . . .

No one is suggesting that Mr. Sununu knew anything about the phone jamming. Mr. Raymond says his instructions came from James Tobin, the northeast regional director of the Republican National Committee. And he says a top official of the New Hampshire Republican Party provided the phone numbers of the Democratic get-out-the-vote banks. Mr. Raymond jammed the lines — placing hundreds of hang-up calls an hour — to five Democratic offices across the state and a phone bank run by volunteer firefighters.

Mr. Raymond pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit phone harassment and was sentenced to five months in prison. Mr. Tobin argued in court that the idea to jam the phones was not his and that he committed no crime. A federal appeals court in Boston reversed his conviction, saying that the law he was found guilty under was not “a close fit for what he did.” The Republican Party has paid a high-priced law firm in Washington to defend Mr. Tobin, according to The Associated Press, and Mr. Raymond suspects it is because Republican bigwigs “wanted him to keep his yap shut” about the origins of the scheme. . . .

Congress needs to toughen the laws protecting elections, and make clear that anyone interfering with democracy will pay a stiff price.

'The Free Market: A False Idol After All?'

"Invisible hand" slapped here.

“Untethered market forces lead to bad things,” said Mr. Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. “You simply can’t run an economy as complicated as ours on ideology alone.”

Christopher Hitchens: 'The Iowa Scam'

"The undemocratic caucuses are a terrible way to choose a presidential candidate." Article in Slate.

The term of choice for the more thoughtful reporters, in describing the Iowa rules, is "arcane." Kurtz used it, as did his colleague Dan Balz, in briefly telling the truth about the even more scandalous situation on the Democratic side:

With its arcane caucus rules, Iowa remains a small battlefield. Only 124,000 Democrats voted last time, less than a quarter of those eligible. So if Barack Obama, say, edges Hillary Clinton by 2,000 votes, he'll be hailed in headlines as a giant-killer despite the tiny margin.

That's true enough, but how can an establishment media critic be so absolutely sure that all his colleagues will, in fact, behave this badly? Can it be, as I hinted above, that the other "arcane" process (the arduous and dubious "money primary") is mainly determined by the imperative need to buy advertising spots in the same media that knowingly cover a phony process as if it were a real one?

It's only when you read an honest reporter like Dan Balz that you appreciate the depth and extent of the fraud that is being practiced on us all. "In a primary," as he put it, "voters quietly fill out their ballots and leave. In the caucuses, they are required to come and stay for several hours, and there are no secret ballots. In the presence of friends, neighbors and occasionally strangers, Iowa Democrats vote with their feet, by raising their hands and moving to different parts of the room to signify their support for one candidate or another. … [F]or Democrats, it is not a one-person, one-vote system. … Inducements are allowed; bribes are not." One has to love that last sentence. . . .

The process might be a good way for Iowa to pick its party convention delegates, though I frankly doubt even that. It is an absolutely terrible way in which to select candidates for the presidency, and it makes the United States look and feel like a banana republic both at home and overseas.

'Will Obama win by not being a Democrat?'

This from Turkana at The Left Coaster:

Marc Ambinder, of The Atlantic, got an email from the Clinton campaign:

The Des Moines Register poll adopts an unprecedented new turnout model for the caucuses, and its new poll is out of sync with the other polling done in the race.

As reported in my previous David Yepsen post, the Register assumes much higher participation in the Democratic caucuses by people who are not Democrats.

When you look at Democrats who last time were 80% of the turnout, Hillary wins with that group by 6%, 33 to 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards. And as David Yepsen points out, had their pollsters used the 2004 turnout model, Hillary would lead by 29 to 27, figures in line with the other polls.

Which tells us a few important things:

1) If the Register is wrong about turnout, Hillary leads their poll.

2) If they are right about turnout, my previous post ["The Iowa Caucuses are officially a farce!"] remains true - the result of the caucus will be a farce.

3) If they are right about turnout, and Obama wins, it will underscore that he is moving the Party in the wrong direction - away from the base, away from unions, away from core Democratic values! Everyone from digby, to Markos, to Ezra Klein, to Matthew Yglesias, to Big Tent Democrat, to Atrios has something to say about it. Bottom line: Obama may be running a smart horse-race strategy; but anyone who cares about the direction of the Democratic Party ought to be worried.

'Barack Obama's nouvelle vague'

"We know he's a 'hope monger,' but the rest of Obama's unconventional message is elusive." Item by Walter Shapiro in Salon.

On the cusp of the New Year, it is beguiling to believe that Obama's appeal-to-our-better-angels politics represents the wave of the future. But there is also the skeptical feeling that the Bad Old Politics are not yet ready to be dragged offstage by a man with scythe.

Happy New Year

Today after work I bought a couple bottles of champagne (the Domaine Ste. Michelle, Brut Columbia Valley (WA) and the Chandon Brut Classic (CA) from the list posted below--nothing extravagant). Drinking the Washington wine now. Very good (as billed). B. is at a Latin party by the pool. We toasted with the champagne before he left. I watched all the fireworks from the terrace at midnight.